• Adv. Rajiv Sharma

In 1947, Pandit Nehru inherited a badly battered and bruised economy and humongous political project to integrate 500 plus princely states to establish a democratic, secular India. Despite these monumental challenges, his government did not lose focus from the nation building endeavours. He established hundreds of autonomous world class institutions, which earned international acclaim and admiration for the country.

India’s official statistical system was one such endeavour, which continued to earn global respect and accolades as one of the most credible organizations until the advent of Modi government in 2014. The India’s data collection was spearheaded by National Sample Survey (NSS), which was founded in 1950 under the stewardship of P.C. Mahalanobis. It was later named as NSSO in 1970. The Central Statistical Institute was established in 1951, which was later named as Central Statistical Office (CSO). The National Statistical Commission (NSC) was set-up in 2005. It was essentially an advisory body under the Ministry of Statistics and Program implementation.

India’s statistical system began following the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics much before some developed countries adopted them. No wonder, from 1950s to 2014, the reputation of India’s statistical data was at its peak and the world lauded it for transparent, accurate and reliable data collection. The global bodies including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, renowned economists, universities and research institutes used to describe it as “gold standard”.

The World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Indicator consistently ranked India at a high pedestal till 2015. The surveys done by the India’s statistical organizations on employment, education, health, debt & investment, consumption, and unorganised enterprises were recognised as the global benchmark for measuring poverty, inequality, and informal-sector activity. The survey on consumption conducted in 2011-12 was used by the World Bank to recalibrate global poverty lines. The 68th round Health & Morbidity survey of 2011-12 conducted by the NSSO is still treated as the gold standard for out-of-pocket health expenditure studies in low and middle-income countries.

All the governments up to year 2014, including the NDA government of AB Vajpayee, let the statistical bodies to have complete institutional autonomy, methodological excellence and transparency as formulated by Pandit Nehru. No government ever attempted to fudge the data or hide it, even if it was politically inconvenient and damaging. But all this good work was reversed after 2014

Prime Minister Narendra Modi rode to power on the basis of tall promises, which he could never fulfil. He promised to pay Rs. 15 lakhs to every Indian, provide 2 crore jobs every year to the youth, double the income of the farmers, provide a pucca house to every family and develop at least 100 new smart cities in the country, ensure fast paced growth of all sections and many more. But in the last 11 years, the government has not been able to initiate even the preliminary work to honour these promises. Today India is ranked at 142 in the world in terms of per capita GDP among 190 countries. The current unemployment of the youth is the highest in last many years. The people are reeling under the dual impact of rising prices and decreasing incomes. The small and medium businesses and shops are in serious trouble and the agriculture sector is facing existential crisis as Modi government has badly mismanaged the economy. It has almost destroyed the informal sector. Economic and social inequalities are causing deep fissures in the country. The crimes against the women, dalits and minorities are at all time high. 13 cities of India are on the list of the 20 most polluted cities in the world. Delhi remains the most polluted capital in the world for sixth straight year. The hunger pangs have begun to hit the poor, as India is now ranked at 102 on global hunger index out of 123 countries. Suffice to say that the Modi government has miserably failed on all the parameters and in all the areas of governance.

With such a dismal record, this coward and timid government can not gather the courage to face the reality. Hence it is doing everything to fudge or hide the politically inconvenient data to save it from public ignominy.

The first manipulation in order to fudge the GDP data was done as early as in 2015, when the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation shifted the GDP base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12. It introduced new data sources, like MCA-21 corporate filings, which increased the growth estimates for the post-2014 period while lowering the figures during UPA times. As per the analysis of former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, the yearly GDP growth got inflated by at least 2.5 percentage points due to this. The methodology was again manipulated in 2018 to further inflate the GDP data. For this reason, the neutral economists across the globe view GDP figures released by Modi government with suspicion.

In year 2019, P.C. Mohanan, acting Chairman of National Statistical Commission (NSC) accused the government of unduly interfering in the data release and resigned in protest. Two more members of the NSC have also resigned in protest.

Withholding the periodic Labour Force Survey, which was conducted by NSSO was yet another incident, which eroded the trust on India’s data system. The data showed unemployment at its highest in the last 45 years. The government delayed the release of the report for months together until the results of 2019 General elections were declared. Similarly, the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2017-18, which revealed stagnant rural consumption and rising inequality was also withheld. A similar report for 2022-23 was only partially released.

In 2019, the government arbitrarily merged the NSSO and the CSO to form National Statistical Office (NSO). The thoughtless merger, which curtailed the authority of NSC, further eroded the faith on data collection. India’s mainstream media remained silent on these serious issues but the world was always taking note.

Casting suspicion over India’s GDP figures, the Annual Observance of Standards and Codes (AOSC) of the IMF gave a low ‘C grade’ to India’s national accounts. The IMF gave multiple reasons for this. It said that the government kept an outdated 2011-12 as base year and relied upon wholesale price index only as deflator instead of sector-specific producer price index. It ignored the informal sector and inter-sectoral inconsistencies, while collecting the data. Many commentators decried the ‘C’ Rating as a shame for the country, whose statistical system was recognised as a gold standard not so long ago.

The people of the country have been paying a huge cost due to manipulation of the data by Modi government. When there is no data, there is no accountability, hence no relief or compensation needs to be paid. Till today, we do not know the actual number of Covid deaths, or the number of migrant labourers, who lost their lives while travelling to their native places on foot or the number of jobs lost due to notebandi or the number of MSMEs, which shut down after promulgation of the CGST Act or even the exact number of the pilgrims killed in stampedes during recent Kumbh mela. Further, lack of unemployment data has led to exacerbation of the youth employment crisis. Similarly, the data on agrarian crisis or the number of the school and college drop-outs due to exorbitant fees or economic distress is not available. The list is endless.

For the first time in 140 years, the country has not conducted the decennial census. This is a bad news for the economy. Lack of census data leads to irrational planning and wrong resource allocation, problem of fiscal devolution distortion of welfare schemes, faulty urban & rural planning, corruption, wastage of tax payers’ money and squandering of demographic dividend or for a country brimming with young people.

It is therefore, high time that the government began catering to the interest of the country instead of protecting its own political interests only. They must begin to publish the accurate and timely data immediately, for the sake of the country.

The author is General Secretary and Chief Spokesperson Chandigarh Pradesh Congress