The Economic Survey of 2023-24, released in advance of tomorrow’s Budget, must have been a difficult document for the non-biological PM’s spin doctors to produce. It does its best to present an ‘All is well’ rosy picture of the economy. Unfortunately for the PM and for the people of India, the economic situation is so desperate that some harsh facts come through anyway:

• Food inflation remains unchecked, at nearly 10% per year. Prices of specific foods are growing at a rapid pace - cereals at 11%, vegetables at 15%, spices at 19%, milk at 7%. It is the poor and middle class who are worst affected by this. • Economic recovery after COVID has been deeply unequal. Rural India has been left behind. Sales of 2-wheelers in rural areas, one of the leading indicators of consumer demand and economic growth, are still lower than they were in 2018. • The Modi government’s anti-farmer mindset is called out in the Economic Survey. Its abuse of import-export policy with unplanned and unjustified export bans and floods of cheap imports, has been flagged for debilitating farmer incomes. Wheat, paddy, pulses, onion, sugar, and edible oils - no farmer has been spared by the whimsy of the Government’s policymaking. • The failure of trade policy has also contributed to the decimation of India’s manufacturing capabilities. Since 2014, the percentage of imports from China has risen from 11% of overall imports to 16%. The uncontrolled dumping of these imports has rendered domestic MSMEs uncompetitive, forcing them to shut down. • Housing, a critical sector, has also done poorly. In 2023, residential real estate sales in India are only now reaching back to the levels witnessed in 2013. The Economic Survey also virtually admits the failure of the Union Government’s policymaking with regards to generating private investment. • The Modi Government’s approach to the corporate sector has been to give generous handouts - like the Rs. 1.5 lakh crore corporate tax cut and the Rs. 2 lakh crore PLI - without directly incentivizing investment or hiring. • Thus, while the sops have contributed to record profitmaking, private investment has not risen. According to the economic survey, “private sector GFCF in machinery and equipment and intellectual property products has grown cumulatively by only 35% in the four years to FY23… This is not a healthy mix.” • The Economic Survey has flagged India’s “slow pace of investment in M&E and IP Products” as affecting manufacturing growth and formal employment growth. • Even Research & Development, which is essential for our long-term growth and investment, has flatlined. It is lower as a percentage of GDP today than in 2014, when Dr. Manmohan Singh left office. • Recall that CMIE data shows private investment plans at their lowest level in 20 years. Similarly, the Economic Survey is forced to acknowledge the unemployment situation – the greatest failure of the Modi Government. • The Economic Survey has flagged that we must create nearly 80 lakh jobs each year for the next 20 years. • The Survey also points out that “manufacturing sector employment creation has been subdued in the past decade,” despite the hype and hoopla of ‘Make in India’. • What is not said, however, is that the Union Government’s current strategy is entirely reliant on data manipulation and pakodanomics. Achieving the 80 lakhs job target requires a decided shift in the Government’s larger economic strategy. The Economic Survey would not be a Modi government document without some completely ridiculous lies. The most shameful of them all, however, is the astounding claim that “Abject poverty has all but been eliminated.” A reality check: • Half of all Indians cannot even afford 3 meals per day • 1 in 3 children are stunted and 1 in 4 children are not fully immunized, according to the NFHS-5 • Approximately two-thirds of the country is reliant on free foodgrains provided under the National Food Security Act India is in its most precarious and difficult economic situation in many years. The Economic Survey might present a cherry-picked view of the economy, but we hope that tomorrow’s Budget faces up to the country’s realities. If the Finance Ministry is still looking for ideas, we would point them to the Indian National Congress’ Nyay Patra 2024. The need of the hour is a Right to Apprenticeship, protections for gig workers and unorganized sector workers, minimum wage hikes to Rs. 400 per day, an end to tax terrorism, and an expansion of social protection schemes like Anganwadis.

Statement of Shri Jairam Ramesh, MP, General Secretary (Communications), AICC on July 22, 2024