10 SAAL ANYAY KAAL 2014 – 2024

The Congress Party brought out a Black Paper against the ruling government because whenever they present their views in the Parliament, they repeatedly narrate their success and hide their failures. So, the Congress Party decided to inform the citizens of the country about it through the Black Paper. The Congress Sandesh is publishing this Black Paper in two parts.

INTRODUCTION

The Modi government’s 10 years in power have devastated the country’s economy, aggravated unemployment, destroyed the country’s agricultural sector, abetted crimes against women and committed grave injustices against minorities in the country. Here is the charge-sheet of BJP’s anyay during its decade in power.

AARTHIK ANYAY

The Modi government's tenure is marked by high rates of unemployment, economic catastrophes, such as demonetisation and flawed GST, which have only increased the divide between the rich & the poor and devastated the future of millions of farmers and daily wage workers.

1. RAMPANT UNEMPLOYMENT

The Anyay Kaal has witnessed the highest unemployment rate in 45 years. Total unemployment was 1 crore in 2012 but rose to about 4 crore in 2022. 10 lakh sanctioned central government posts remain unfilled. The unemployment rate for graduates and postgraduates is about 33% – one in three are looking unsuccessfully for a job. This is why engineers are becoming coolies and PhDs are applying for railway peon jobs. And this is also why two unemployed persons die by suicide every hour.

2. ECONOMIC BLUNDERS

The prices of essential commodities are at all-time highs:

LPG	Petrol	Diesel	Mustard Oil	Atta	Milk

2014 ₹410/Cylinder ₹71/litre ₹55/litre ₹90/kg ₹22/kg ₹35/litre 2024 ₹903/cylinder ↑ ₹97/litre ↑ ₹90/litre ↑ ₹143/kg ↑ ₹35/kg ↑ ₹60/litre ↑ % Increase 120% 37% 64% 59% 59% 71%

The price of crude oil on the world market has fallen by 21% between May 2014 and February 2024 – from over $100 to $79 per barrel, but fuel prices remain close to _100 per litre. This raised the cost of all essential commodities. Blunders like demonetisation and a poorly-designed GST completely derailed the economy and destroyed job-generating small businesses.

3. DISTRESSED FARMERS

In Anyay Kaal, farmers were promised a doubling of their income but instead received pathetic MSP increases and the three farm laws railroaded through Parliament to enrich the PM’s corporate cronies. 700 farmers died fighting against these black laws. Insurance companies under the PM Fasal Bima Yojana have made a profit of _40,000 crore while one farmer dies by suicide every hour.

4. WORKERS ABANDONED

India’s workers have experienced a lost decade, with stagnant real wages. Wage growth has been less than 1% per year for all rural workers, and salaried workers now earn less. Instead of manufacturing jobs or export-sector jobs, workers are pushed into contractualization or ‘self-employment.’ Economic blunders began this Anyay-Kaal even before COVID, but a nationwide lockdown with 4 hours of notice triggered a humanitarian crisis and disrupted the livelihood of 4 crore migrant workers. For weeks they walked with their families back to their homes and survived only because of the UPA’s MGNREGA scheme.

Only billionaires get support from the Modi government, through corporate tax cuts and PLI handouts, while workers and MSMEs are required to be atmanirbhar in every sense.

5. MODANI RAJ

PM Modi made a commitment before G20 world leaders in 2016 to lead efforts to “eliminate safe havens for economic offenders” and “remove the excessive banking secrecy that hide the corrupt and their deeds”. Instead he has neutered India’s investigative agencies and facilitated the expansion of his cronies into every strategic sector of the economy.

SEBI, ED and CBI have been asleep as repeated exposes establish a clear link between money flowing out from the pockets of Indian coal utilities and electricity consumers via over invoiced coal imports and the funds flowing into Adani Group companies, inflating stock prices.

SAMAJIK ANYAY

The Modi government’s tenure has witnessed blatant discrimination and severe oppression against women, SCs, STs, OBCs and minorities. Its politics of hatred, polarisation and divide has destroyed the social fabric of the country and attracted immense international disrepute.

6. SCS, STS AND OBCS BETRAYED

Crimes against SC & ST communities have increased by 48% in 2022 as compared to 2013. The government’s refusal to hold a Socio-Economic and Caste Census to enumerate OBCs is an insult to those who are being denied representation in jobs and educational institutions because they are not being counted. Privatisation and contractualisation represent a twin attack on reservations, especially in critical sectors like health and education.

7. INJUSTICE AGAINST WOMEN

A total of 31,516 rape cases were recorded in 2022 in India, this is an average of 86 a day. While rapes are on the rise, the conviction rate stands at an abysmal 27.4%. Whether it is Kuldeep Singh Sengar, the BJP MLA implicated in the Unnao rape case or the Modi government’s approval of the early release of the Bilkis Bano rapists and murderers, or the cover-up of the Hathras rape case, the BJP seems to stand for rapists against the victims.

8. SOCIAL DISHARMONY

BJP leaders have openly spread hate and violence across India on caste and religious lines. Ministers have called for violence against minorities and garlanded mob lynching convicts. MPs and MLAs have supported rapists on communal lines, called for violence against minorities, assaulted Dalit women, and abused SCs, STs, and OBCs. Hate speech has reached new peaks, while caste atrocities like Una and Hathras shame the nation. Caste discrimination has been institutionalised in higher education.

The BJP has also attacked entire states and communities for political gain, such as protesting farmers. Meanwhile Manipur has been burning for 9 months, with the BJP CM spreading hate, but PM Modi is silent.

RAJNEETIK ANYAY

The Modi Government has remained silent as China encroached upon hundreds of kilometers of our land, simultaneously undermining the Army with the Agnipath scheme and demoralising our young patriots. Its assertiveness surfaces only in targeting opposition leaders and eroding the independence of the media and democratic institutions such as the Election Commission, ED, RBI, etc.

9. INSTITUTIONS’ SUBVERSION

All independent institutions of the country - judiciary, election commission, RBI, media etc, critical to maintaining a robust democracy stand compromised and subverted. Under Anyay Kaal, all checks and balances have been diluted with institutions turned into rubber stamps.

Elected state governments in Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Manipur were undermined after the BJP used blatant money power and threats of investigation to induce MLAs to switch sides. Since 2014, a 5-fold jump in ED cases against politicians has occurred; 95% of these politicians are from the Opposition.

Investigative Agency Number of Investigations Investigations against the Opposition 2004-14 After 2014 2004-14 After 2014 Enforcement Directorate 26 121 54% 95% Central Bureau of Investigation 72 124 60% 95%

10. NATIONAL SECURITY COMPROMISED

For four years, the Modi government has tried to cover up the worst territorial setback in six decades for India with its DDLJ approach: Deny, Distract, Lie and Justify. Chinese troops continue to deny Indian patrols access to the strategic Depsang Plains, Demchok and other areas in eastern Ladakh. China continues to deny us access to 2,000 square km despite 18 rounds of military talks. Government sources have revealed how Indian troops have lost access to 26 out of 65 patrolling points and that the Modi government has agreed to buffer zones in which India cedes further territory.

All of this was enabled by the PM’s 19 June 2020 clean chit to China – when he said “Na koi hamari seema mein ghus aaya hai, na hi koi ghusa hua hai”, a profound insult to our fallen soldiers in Galwan. Even today, the PM is afraid to name China.

At a time when China is threatening our borders the Modi government has permitted tensions in the northeast to rise. In Manipur, 35,000 people have been displaced and around 1,700 houses burnt. Over 180 people lost their lives and over 1100 were injured in disturbances that spread across Manipur from 3 May 2023. This is the result of BJP's “double engine” governments.

AARTHIK ANYAY

RAMPANT UNEMPLOYMENT

1. UNEMPLOYMENT CRISIS

PM Modi has completely failed in his promise to create 2 crore jobs every year. Contrary to the Modi government’s claims about how many jobs it generates, total unemployment (all ages) was 1 crore in 2012 but rose to about 4 crore in 2022. For a government that promised crores of jobs every year, the Modi government has instead destroyed jobs.

Under the UPA, between 2004-05 and 2011-12 the Indian economy saw the creation of 75 lakh non-farm jobs every year. Between 2013 and 2019, the number of non-farm jobs created was 29 lakh per year, less than half the UPA’s rate. After 2019 the number has been even lower according to government data.

The high rate of job creation enabled 50 lakh workers to exit agriculture every year under the UPA. For the first time in India's history, the absolute numbers in agriculture fell after 2004-05.

Even before Covid-19, the unemployment rate had shot up dramatically. A leaked report on unemployment data confirmed that joblessness in the country stood at 6.1 per cent of the total labour force during 2017-18, the highest in 45 years. The data released by the Labour Ministry also confirmed the pre-election leaked report.

The consequences of this crisis are dire. NCRB data shows that two unemployed persons commit suicide every hour.

2. YOUTH EMPLOYMENT: MISSING FROM NATIONAL DISCOURSE

Youth unemployment has more than doubled, from 6% in 2011-12 to 15% in 2019-20 according to PLFS data. The unemployment rate for graduates and postgraduates is about 33% – one in three are looking unsuccessfully for a job. This is why engineers are becoming coolies and PhDs are applying for railway peon jobs.

In 2016-17, there were 10.34 crore people under the age of 30 years in the workforce. By the end of 2022-23, this number had fallen by over 3 crores to just 7.1 crore. As per CMIE, the unemployment rate in the age group 20-24 years was 44.5% in the October-December 2023 quarter. For the age-group 25-29 years, it was at a 14 month high of 14.33%.

3. THE MODI GOVERNMENT HAS REVERSED THE STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY

As economies mature, workers move away from low-paying farm jobs to higher paying jobs in manufacturing and services. The opposite has happened to India under Modi. Modi’s policies have forced India’s youth back into farming. For 15 years, young workers moved out of agriculture into manufacturing and services. The number of agricultural workers declined by 6.7 crore between 2004-05 and 2017-18. This entire progress has almost been reversed in three years. In a single year, 2019-20, even before Covid, the number of agricultural workers rose by 3.4 crore. Since 2018-19, the number of agricultural workers has gone up by 6 crore.

4. WAGE GROWTH HAS SUFFERED

The salaried class has been devastated under the Modi government, and casual labour has also performed poorly. Regular salaried workers' share in total employment, which was 23.8% in 2019 before Covid, fell to 20.9% in 2023. Unpaid family workers, whose numbers had fallen from 11.1 crore in 2004 to 8.5 cr in 2012, and further to 6.2 cr by 2017, have risen sharply to 10.4 cr by 2023. This showed distress has driven these family members (children and women mostly) into unpaid work to support the family.

NSSO data shows that wages grew rapidly under the UPA government and slowed and even became negative in the Modi era.

5. A CONSISTENT STORY OF LOW LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION

The LFPR has been falling since 2016-17 and has hit its lowest in 2022-23. It is noteworthy that the fall has happened despite the ‘fast growth rate of the economy’. What is even more concerning is that LFPR for women in the financial year 2022-23 was just 8.8%, more than 90% of all working-age women in India don’t even look for a job!

6. WOMEN’S LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE TO BE TAKEN WITH A PINCH OF SALT

Rural areas account for 96% of the growth in the labour force. At the same time, of the 101 million growth registered by the labour force, 74 million of it came from women. Combining these two facts makes it clear that rural women are the most significant contributors to the rising LFPR. The increase is driven by an increase in the proportion of rural women under the broad category of “self-employed”, which has risen from 55.9% in 2017-18 to 70.1% in 2022-23. between 2021-22 and 2022-23, it was the proportion of women working as own-account workers that increased, whereas the proportion as unpaid workers remained 38%. Thus, the increase in female LFPRs is attributable to an increase in the proportion of women working as own-account enterprises or as unpaid helpers. Women account for most of the growth in unpaid work.

7. UNPAID WORK LEADS THE WAY

The official government numbers count those working as unpaid family workers as employed. Out of 11 crore people who have joined the workforce since 2017, 4 crore (37%) have ended up as unpaid family workers. This is the reality of “employment creation” in Modi’s India - low-quality, often unpaid.

8. SALARIED JOBS DO NOT CONTRIBUTE TO JOB GROWTH

There were an estimated 28.2 million regular wage jobs in government, local bodies, or public sector undertakings in 2017-18. This number decreased to 27.6 million in the 2022-23 PLFS. The number of such jobs without a written contract has risen from 17.3 million to 21.2 million.

9. WHY NOT DEPEND ON ‘RELIABLE GOVERNMENT SOURCES’ FOR DATA?

For the first time in 140 years, the decennial census was discontinued. The government junked NSS’ consumption and expenditure survey after it showed the Modi government in poor light.

For starters, this ‘reliable data’ from the Ministry of Statistics shows a recovering labour market but economists have always pointed out these figures to be outdated and inadequate. The figures published under the Periodic Labour Force Survey by the government come only a year later. Markets and academicians are being forced to rely on private sources like the Centre for Monitoring Economy (CMIE) for their timeliness and better correlation.

This over-reliance masks a bigger concern behind it: a decline in the overall data collection apparatus of India. It is no wonder that the Modi government’s politically guided data collection has kept the nation away from the true quantum of its problems. Former RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao has pointed out in his book that flawed data often leads to bad policy decisions.

The Union government stopped the quarterly surveys conducted by the Labour Bureau in March 2018, following the elimination of the annual Employment-Unemployment Survey; uneasy with politically uncomfortable facts. Likewise, the postponement of the release of the 2017-’18 jobs report by the National Sample Survey Office, which revealed an alarming four-decade-high unemployment rate of 6.1%, appears to have been politically motivated, as it was held back for several months amidst the 2019 general election.

The data, even when it comes out with the lag of a year, cannot facilitate comparisons because it is not standardised. While most countries possess robust data mechanisms as unemployment connects to social security benefits, our government does not believe in international standardization and that effectively becomes a ruse to refuse comparison and international studies.

ECONOMIC BLUNDERS

1. MODI GOVERNMENT IS SILENT ON THE PRICE RISE, WHICH HAS RAISED THE PRICES OF LPG, PETROL, DIESEL, AND DAILY ESSENTIALS TO RECORD LEVELS

The price of every daily essential is touching sky-high levels. Crores of families are suffering, especially women who often manage household budgets.

LPG	Petrol	Diesel	Mustard Oil	Atta	Milk

2014 ₹410/Cylinder ₹71/litre ₹55/litre ₹90/kg ₹22/kg ₹35/litre 2024 ₹903/cylinder ↑ ₹97/litre ↑ ₹90/litre ↑ ₹143/kg ↑ ₹35/kg ↑ ₹60/litre ↑ % Increase 120% 37% 64% 59% 59% 71%

The Modi government refuses to even discuss rising prices. The PM never mentions it, and the Finance Minister jokes about it when questioned and says the Opposition should not ask questions. They blame the Ukraine war. In truth, the price of crude oil on the world market has fallen by 21% between May 2014 and February 2024 – from over $100 to $79 for a barrel. Yet, the Modi government keeps on increasing prices of LPG, petrol and diesel, which makes all other commodities expensive.

2. BLUNDER OF DEMONETISATION

7 years after PM Modi’s disastrous demonetisation, the economic effects continue to haunt the country. None of the ever-changing goals of the exercise have been met. Black money remains, and there’s no evidence that demonetisation affected it. Corruption abounds as the BJP’s 40% sarkara in Karnataka showed. The country did not even become cashless. Cash in circulation has increased between 2016 and 2023 has more than doubled from ₹16 lakh crores in 2016 to ₹34 lakh crores in 2023. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that from October to January 19, currency leakage from bank deposits to cash was as much as ₹1.2 lakh crore. As a share of the country’s GDP, cash has increased to 12.7% in 2023 from 11.6% in March 2014.

The costs of this blunder were severe. More than 15 lakh jobs were estimated to be lost in the first four months of 2017, mainly in small businesses and the informal sector. Over a hundred people died while standing in line to change bank notes. The Modi government has still not learnt the lesson - the scrapping of the ₹2,000 note is yet another painful reminder.

3. THE MODI GOVERNMENT IS RESORTING TO TAX TERRORISM AND POORLY DESIGNED GST WHICH PUNISHES THE SMALL AND MIDDLE CLASS TO SHORE UP ITS REVENUES

While PM Modi promised to eliminate “tax terrorism”, his government has excelled in finding innovative and inefficient ways to tax Indians. By relying heavily on a poorly designed GST to make up for a corporate tax cut, the Modi government is taxing the poor, and small businesses, to subsidize large corporations. GST is a consumption tax. The poor consume most of their income, while the rich save larger parts of their income. As a result, GST hits the poor more, just like other indirect taxes. Nearly 64% of the total ₹14.83 lakh crore in GST was obtained via through the middle 40%, and only 3% of GST from the top 10%. As a result, the share of income going to indirect taxes is six times more for the poorest half of Indians compared to the top 10 per cent.

Similarly, the poorly designed GST has disproportionately hurt small and medium businesses which are the backbone of the economy. Small businesses find it hard to understand the six slabs with many exemptions. The GST law has been amended more than 900 times till now to clarify 'ambiguities' in it over the last 6 years. The rules are ever-changing - between 2017-22, the Modi government changed the rules once every other day, with 869 notifications, 195 circulars, 23 instructions and 19 orders. Small businesses often have to register in multiple states at times and have to pay higher amounts for accountants and lawyers. Similarly, the vast number of informal sector businesses are shut out of the formal economy.

4. ECONOMIC POLICIES THAT HELP CHOSEN FRIENDS AT THE EXPENSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES

The Modi government’s policies have consistently helped its chosen large corporate friends through tax cuts, loan write-offs and favourable contracts and rules while neglecting small and medium enterprises and the informal economy. In 2019, the Modi Government reduced the corporate tax slabs from 30% to 22%, with new companies paying only 15%. This resulted in a total loss of ₹1.84 lakh crore.

In addition, over the past 7-8 years, ₹11 lakh crores of loans made to big businessmen have been waived. The government has also announced ₹1.9 lakh crore in “production-linked incentives (PLI)” to large businesses. This costly scheme has been criticised by noted economist Raghuram Rajan since it has not succeeded in boosting exports and creating jobs, and maybe subsidising companies for activities that they were planning to undertake anyway. The costs of these tax cuts, loan write offs and subsidies are borne by Indians, who have to pay taxes for petrol, diesel and GST.

At the same time, there are hardly any schemes for small businesses that have yielded any notable results. The government’s Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme during the COVID-19 pandemic reached only about 20% of MSMEs, while 63% had not even heard about it. It is no surprise that big corporates are flourishing while lakhs of MSMEs have shut down, and the surviving ones are drastically cutting down operations.

5. RISE IN INEQUALITY, POVERTY, HUNGER AND MALNUTRITION

The Modi government’s tenure has probably seen an unprecedented reduction in incomes. The NSSO data that the PM suppressed shows consumer spending falling for the first time since 1973, from ₹1,501 in 2011-12 to ₹1,446 in 2017-18. Experts show that the poverty levels are likely much higher than government claims, since urban poverty rose by 2 percentage points during the 2016 demonetisation, and rural poverty has stopped reducing since 2019. Falling incomes at a time of rising costs have resulted in greater hunger and malnutrition. The number of hungry Indians increased from 19 crores in 2018 to 35 crores in 2022. India’s position in the Global Hunger Index 2023 was 111 out of 125 countries. The situation is so dire that the government claims that it has to provide free food grains to 80 crore citizens. India’s children have the highest rate of malnutrition, measured by weight-for-height, at 19.3%, worse than in 2014 at 15.1%.

While the poor are growing poorer and hungrier, the rich are growing richer. 40% of the wealth created in India from 2012-2021 went to only 1% of the population. When the country suffered from COVID-19 between 2020 and 2022, the total number of billionaires in India increased from 102 in 2020 to 169 billionaires. The PM’s favourite and favoured businessman, Gautam Adani, saw his wealth increase 14 times between 2017 and 2022 and climbed from rank 106 to 16.

6. NEGLECT OF PUBLIC SECTOR – VACANCIES IN GOVT JOBS AND RECKLESS SALE OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

The hypocrisy of PM Modi’s jobs promise is best shown by the vacancies in government positions and his reckless sale and downsizing of PSUs. As of August 2022, over 9 lakh 79 thousand posts were vacant in Central Government offices. There are many more vacancies in PSUs, CAPFs, and similar bodies. Up to thirty lakh vacancies are estimated to exist in government positions across India. Similarly, the Modi government is closing down PSUs and reducing their size. 188 out of India's 248 PSUs are profitable. 55 PSUs posted a 157 per cent jump in combined profit to 3.5 lakh crore from 1.36 lakh crore in FY19. A total of 22 CPSEs returned to profit from loss in FY22.

However, the government is proceeding with reckless and disastrous sales – the LIC IPO which resulted in huge losses is only the latest example. As a result of sale and downsizing, the number of people working in PSUs between 2013 and 2022 has fallen from 17.3 lakh to 14.6 lakh. While in 2013, contract workers accounted for only 17% of the workers in these PSUs, the number has more than doubled to 36% in 2022. Similarly, the jobs in the railways have reduced from 17 lakh to 11 lakh in 2023. Government jobs provided a pathway to a secure life for crores, especially from Dalit, Adivasi and OBC communities. The Modi government has generated unemployment and hit these communities the hardest.

7. COLLAPSE OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT

Private investment is a key driver of the economy. Private investment has fallen from the highs of over 25% of GDP in the second half of UPA-2 to 19.6% of GDP in 2021. Such a low level of private investment has not been since 1999. This is a sign that enterprises and investors are concerned about the weaknesses of the Indian economy, despite PM Modi’s hype, and is a significant brake on economic growth.

DISTRESSED FARMERS

1. INTRODUCTION OF THREE BLACK FARM LAWS AND VIOLENCE TO FARMERS

The three black farm laws were introduced by the Modi government in 2020, with limited consultation with farmers and without debate in Parliament. These laws favoured large corporations by allowing unrestricted trade and undermined farmers’ bargaining power by weakening mandis. It was a recipe for exploitation and lower income for farmers, and they bitterly opposed it. Rather than listening to farmers, the Modi government met them with water cannons, teargas shells, barbed wire and barricades. They had to protest outside Delhi for more than 300 days in the bitter cold, sweltering heat and face brutal violence by the State. Over 700 farmers died during the protest. The government’s cruelty was best shown by the violence against peaceful farmers at Lakhmipur Kheri, where Union Minister Ajay Misra Teni’s son mowed down farmers with his car.

2. PROMISES MADE TO FARMERS DISHONOURED, ESPECIALLY MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (MSP)

Months after the government made promises to the farmers to end their protest, it has not progressed towards fulfilling its promises. In the run-up to the 2014 elections, BJP had promised the farmers a legally guaranteed MSP for all crops, using the C2+50% formula which gave a margin over the cost of capital and rent on land; assured procurement; loan waivers; and reduction in input prices including those of fertilisers. None have been honoured, leaving farmers vulnerable to high costs and low crop prices.

3. THE LIE OF DOUBLING FARMERS INCOME BY 2022

With slow agricultural growth of 3.47% in the Modi period of 2014-15 to 2022- 23, the dream of making higher income from agriculture seems like a distant reality. The government’s surveys show that the average income of a farmer from growing crops is only ₹27 per day. The Modi government has contributed to the rising input costs faced by farmers by imposing for the first time GST on several key agricultural inputs, shown below:

Agricultural Items Tax Rate Agricultural Equipment 12% Tyres and other parts for tractors, machines for processing and milling cereals or vegetables 18% Fertilisers 5% Pesticides 15%

4. INSUFFICIENT CROP INSURANCE UNDER PM MODI’S, PRADHAN MANTRI FASAL BIMA YOJANA (PMFBY)

The much-hyped PMFBY crop insurance scheme has proven to be unfriendly to farmers and poorly designed. The scheme does not help farmers against losses, since premiums are very high, and they have to wait for many months for compensation which is usually only a fraction of the lost crop value. In the first five years itself, the insurance companies across the country earned a profit of ₹40,000 crore, while the farmers across the country kept yearning for compensation. As a result, coverage has been declining. Between 2016 and 2021, PMFBY saw a decline in participating farmers (362 lakh to 248 lakh) and States (22 to 19), with shrinking coverage (474 to 387 lakh hectares), despite a sharp rise in premiums. According to a September 2022 report, the scheme had failed to reach even 50% of its targeted farmers.

5. REDUCTION IN FARM SUBSIDIES

The government has reduced subsidies on fertilisers, power, and irrigation, which have increased costs for farmers, making farming economically unviable for many. For example, the fertiliser subsidy was reduced by nearly 13% - from a revised estimate of ₹1.89 lakh crores in 2023-24 to a budget allocation of ₹1.64 lakh crores in 2024-25. Similarly, the Market Intervention Scheme and Price Support Scheme was intended to help farmers when crop prices were low. Although it got ₹1,500 crore in the last Budget, nothing was spent. It was practically discontinued in the 2023 Budget with an allocation of just rupees one lakh. Even when the revised estimate for the scheme became 40 lakhs in 2023-24, the allocations under the interim budget are again one lakh rupees.

6. REDUCING AGRICULTURE’S SHARE IN THE UNION BUDGET

The agricultural sector allocation saw only a paltry rise in terms of allocation this year, ₹1.26 lakh crores in the revised estimates of 2023-24 to ₹1.27 lakh crore in 2024–25. As a share of the budget, the spending on agriculture is hardly 2.67%. This shows that the Modi government has deprioritized agriculture, even though it is currently in crisis.

7. FAILURE TO ADDRESS FARMER SUICIDES

Modi government has not taken sufficient measures to address the underlying causes of farmer suicides, such as debt burdens, crop failures, and lack of social support systems. The all-India average of outstanding loans per agriculture household is Rs. 74,121 based on the 2019 NSS report. As a result, according to National Crime Records Bureau, in 2022, India saw 11,290 suicides in the farming sector, a 3.75 per cent rise from the 10,881 suicides reported in 2021. Of these victims in 2022, 5,207 were farmers and 6,083 were agricultural labourers.

9. THE FALSEHOOD OF PM KISAN SAMMAN NIDHI

The Union government under PM Modi often makes claims that PM Kisan Samman Nidhi has benefitted crores of farmers, however, in budget 2024 allocation towards this scheme declined from ₹66,825 crores for 2021- 22 to ₹60,000 crores. Activists have raised serious questions about the number of farmers benefiting, which are yet to be satisfactorily answered.

WORKERS ABANDONED

1. WAGES HAVE BEEN STAGNANT OR DECLINING FOR 10 YEARS

Labour Bureau data shows that between 2014-15 and 2022-23, real wages of agricultural workers rose by only 0.8% per year, and just 0.2% for non-agricultural workers. For construction workers, real wage growth was actually negative. Essentially, there has been no significant growth of real wages at the all-India level in the last 10 years. This distress has been especially bad in the last few years. Real wages—wages adjusted to inflation—in rural India contracted for 16 consecutive months, up to March 2023, according to CMIE. From 2019 to 2023, annual average growth rate of rural wages has been negative for both agricultural (-0.6%) and non-agricultural (-1.4%) labourers.

2. EVEN SALARIED WORKERS HAVE NOT BEEN SPARED

According to PLFS data, after adjusting for inflation, salaried workers made 12% less in 2022-23 than they did in 2017-18.

3. WORKERS WERE SUFFERING EVEN BEFORE COVID, DUE TO MODI POLICIES

The Modi government likes to blame Covid but the highest unemployment in 45 years occurred in 2017-18, before COVID. Mass unemployment and the forced migration of educated youth back into agriculture occurred before Covid. The blame lies entirely with blunders such as demonetisation, a poorly-planned GST, failing non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) to which public sector banks lent heavily in the first term of Modi, and the failure of Make in India.

4. WORKERS ARE REGRESSING FROM STABLE, SALARIED JOBS TO ‘SELF-EMPLOYMENT’

Modi’s mismanagement has managed to reverse a decade of progress in job quality and stability under the UPA. From 2004 to 2017-18, more and more workers were salaried, with their fraction rising from 18.5% to 23.5%. The proportion of self-employment, a euphemistic term that includes everything from pakora-sales on the street to unpaid family work, dropped consistently from 55% to 51%. However, since 2017-18 we have seen a complete reversal, and workers are falling back into daily-wage or self-employed work. Self-employment rose from 51% in 2017-18 to a shocking 57% in 2022-23.

5. CONTRACTUALIZATION HAS TAKEN OFF UNDER MODI

Loosening of labour laws under Modi has allowed industrialists to avoid hiring permanent employees, and instead hire workers on insecure contracts. According to the Annual Survey of Industries, 98.4% of factories employed contract workers in 2019-20, while in 2011, only 28.3% of factories did so. In 2019-20, only 67% factories paid provident fund (PF) and only 55% factories paid bonuses, down from 73% and 64% respectively in 2010-11. Even for those working as contractual labour, they are worse off now. In 2014, contract workers made almost as much as normal labour - only 5% less. A CEDA study showed that in 2017, contract workers made 25% less than directly hired labour.

6. MAKE IN INDIA HAS BEEN A COMPLETE FAILURE

Contrary to the government’s PR claims, the share of manufacturing in the GDP has been falling since 2014 and hit an all-time low of 13% in 2022. PM Modi has initiated the ‘de-industrialization’ of India, with the share of manufacturing in employment dropping from 12.6% in 2011-12 to just 11.6% in 2021-22. From 2011-12 to 2022, the total number of workers in manufacturing was stagnant, going from approximately 6 crore to just about 6.3 crore. In those 10 years, however, with 1 crore youth entering the workforce each year, adding 3 lakh manufacturing jobs each year is a drop in the bucket. The BJP is squandering India’s demographic dividend. This is the reality of Make in India.

7. EXPORT GROWTH HAS ALSO BEEN VERY SLOW UNDER BJP

Merchandise exports grew four times from $77 billion in 2004 to $323 billion in 2014. Between 2014 and 2022 they grew only one-and-a-half times to $454 billion. With less production for global markets comes fewer jobs.

8. MGNREGA IS BEING DELIBERATELY WEAKENED, HURTING 15 CRORE HOUSEHOLDS

PM Modi has never believed in MGNREGA, and vilified it on the floor of Parliament. However, he was forced to recognize its importance during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it was the only source of earning for many rural workers, and indeed saved lakhs from poverty and starvation. However, since then, the budget was reduced to ₹60,000 crore in 2023-24, the lowest in five years. Accounting for backlogs, this is not even enough to provide 30 days of work to the 15 crore households who benefit from MGNREGA, way below the statutory requirement of 100 days.

9. THE BJP IS MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR WORKERS TO ACCESS MGNREGA

Since 2021, over 7.6 crore workers’ MGNREGA job cards have been deleted. The government has also tried to restrict eligibility, labelling almost 11 crore workers out of the 25.25 crore registered as ‘inactive’. Workers are being required to mark attendance in a smartphone app at specific times, even though workers often cannot access smartphones, do not have reliable internet access, or servers may be down. In addition, workers will now only get paid if they are enrolled in the “Aadhaar-Based Payment System”, even though 35% of registered workers are still ineligible for it. These complex rules are causing workers to lose wages despite their hard work.

10. THE MODI GOVERNMENT HAS NEGLECTED JOB-CREATING MSMES

MSMEs are the backbone of India’s economy, accounting for over 10 crore jobs - India’s largest employment sector after agriculture. Instead of supporting MSME growth, however, the BJP government has been focused on its Double-A friends and creating Modi-Made Monopolies. While hitting MSMEs with high GST rates and a high compliance burden, it handed large corporates a 25% tax cut, putting ₹1 lakh crore each year straight into billionaires’ pockets. It has also handed corporates over ₹1 lakh crore through the PLI scheme, generating a very small number of jobs at an outrageous cost.

11. MISMANAGEMENT OF THE COVID_19 LOCKDOWN WAS DEEPLY HARMFUL TO WORKERS

The Modi Government announced a nationwide lockdown with only four hours' notice which suddenly halted economic activity, triggered a terrible humanitarian crisis and disrupted the livelihood of 4 crore migrant workers. For weeks they walked with their families back to their homes, without any regular food and water supply. They were left completely stranded by the BJP government. Many migrant workers and their family members died during this period. It has been considered the largest displacement of workers and families in India since Partition.

MODANI RAJ

PM Modi made a commitment before G20 world leaders in 2016 to lead efforts to “eliminate safe havens for economic offenders” and “remove the “excessive banking secrecy that hide the corrupt and their deeds”. Instead he has neutered India’s investigative agencies and facilitated the expansion of his cronies into every strategic sector of the economy.

1. SEBI’S INEXPLICABLE INABILITY TO INVESTIGATE THE ADANI GROUP

The Supreme Court’s Expert Committee, claimed by some interested parties to have issued a “clean chit”, gave damning revelations about SEBI’s inability to fully investigate the Modani Scam. It pointed out in its report that SEBI had in 2018 diluted and subsequently, in 2019, entirely deleted the reporting requirements relating to the ultimate beneficial (i.e. actual) ownership of foreign funds. This had tied its hands to the extent that “the securities market regulator suspects wrongdoing, but also finds compliance with various stipulations in attendant regulations… It is this dichotomy that has led to SEBI drawing a blank worldwide,” the Expert Committee stated. In other words, SEBI suspects that the Adani Group has violated the rules regarding minimum public shareholding using opaque overseas funds, including the widely reported ₹20,000 crore of benami funds, but has failed to do anything about it. All of which has been rather convenient for PM Modi and his cronies.

2. BLATANT VIOLATION OF SECURITIES AND MONEY-LAUNDERING LAWS

On 31 August 2023, the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project revealed the actual ownership of two of the 13 benami shell companies that SEBI has failed to identify despite years of “investigation”. Chang Chung-Ling and Nasser Ali Shaban Ahli at one point held 8-14% of benami holdings in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Power and Adani Transmission. This was via shell companies in Mauritius, UAE and British Virgin Islands in blatant violation of SEBI’s minimum shareholding laws.

On 12 October 2023 The Financial Times newspaper showed how coal trading firms controlled by Chang Chung-Ling and Mohamed Ali Shaban Ahli siphoned out ₹12,000 crore by over invoicing coal imported by the Adani Group to Mundra Port in Gujarat. This directly contributed to higher electricity prices in India.

The two exposes established a clear link between money flowing out from the pockets of Indian coal utilities and electricity consumers and the funds flowing into Adani Group companies, inflating stock prices in complete violation of SEBI rules relating to minimum ownership.

Why is this being allowed under the watchful eyes of SEBI, ED and CBI? Electoral bonds of course (see point 7 below).

3. LUNCH BANKING WITH STATE BANK OF INDIA

PM Modi has accused previous governments of “phone banking” but what about his own innovation of “lunch banking”? In 2014, SBI agreed to sign an MoU to lend the Adani Group $1 billion after a lunch meeting in Brisbane, Australia, at which Gautam Adani, SBI chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya and the PM were present. This became necessary because Australian banks had refused to fund Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in Australia over environmental concerns.

4. PRICE RISE DUE TO CORRUPTION

The Adani group won six out of six airports – Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Mangalore, Jaipur, Guwahati and Thiruvananthapuram – that were privatised in 2019, and also took control of Mumbai airport with the help of ED and CBI raids on the previous owner. As a result, user development fees that every passenger has to pay in their tickets are going up several fold, contributing to higher airfares.

In Jharkhand the Adani group made the then BJP government change the terms of its thermal power plant that, according to Jharkhand government calculations, will cost Jharkhand consumers ₹7,410 crore over 25 years. All for Modani’s benefit.

5. DHARAVI REDEVELOPMENT LOOT

It is now clear that the true beneficiary of the Dharavi Redevelopment Project are not the people of Mumbai but the PM’s closest friend, aided and abetted by former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Despite official and unofficial claims, the reality is that the Dharavi project will result in Adani being given a mammoth 10.5 crore square feet of real estate Transferable Development Rights (TDR) equivalent to 6-7 times the area of Dharavi. TDR is a transferable credit that allows builders who use land, for instance, in approved slum development projects to be compensated with extra construction rights in other areas.

Adani was awarded the Dharavi project under murky circumstances in which it won after offering a bid of ₹5,069, lower than the original 2018 winning bid by ₹2,131 crore after the original winning bidder was excluded. In the earlier tender, the developer was offered a TDR equivalent to 5 crore square feet, but this has now jumped by 110%, which could give Adani a profit margin as high as 434%.

These supernormal profits have been enabled by Fadnavis’ modifications of Development Control Regulations on 5 November, 2018 and 28 September, 2022 that have the effect of handing Adani a huge TDR bank. Dharavi is a diverse, thriving community of 7 lakh people that represents a mini-India. It has a large number of small, independent businesses that generate an estimated ₹100 crore in annual income to the government. Yet documents show that most of these people will be evicted out and only 54,461 slum dwellers and 9,522 residents in chawls and buildings will receive a rehabilitation home within Dharavi. However Modani will benefit greatly from it.

6. WILFUL DEFAULTERS AND THIEVES ALLOWED TO ESCAPE

Why is it that wilful defaulters with close personal links to PM Modi were allowed to escape India? Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi scammed about ₹13,000 crore from public sector banks while Vijay Mallya ran away with ₹9,000 crore. The top 50 bank defaulters in India accounted for loans worth ₹68,607 crore being written off in the banking system until September 2019. The PM’s friend Mehulbhai’s Gitanjali Gems tops the list of the defaulters with a whopping amount of ₹5,492 crore being written off.

7. BJP WASHING MACHINE AT WORK

A ₹16,000 crore mining scam by the Bellary brothers of Karnataka was washed clean after they re-joined BJP. The whitewashing of Himanta Biswa Sarma, an accused in the Saradha chit scam, who was made the CM after he joined BJP. Suvendu Adhikari from West Bengal, an accused in the Narada sting who went on to join the BJP. Narayan Rane was accused of a money-laundering racket was made a Union Minister. Home Minister Amit Shah accused the NPP-led government in Meghalaya of being the most corrupt government in India, and BJP joined the government post elections. All of these BJP leaders have in some form been protected by the Modi government.

8. ELECTORAL BONDS USED TO FAVOUR THE RULING PARTY

Electoral Bonds - which were vehemently opposed by all political parties and unconstitutionally passed as a Money Bill without discussion in Parliament - allow corporations to make large donations to political parties completely anonymously, thus giving them significant leverage for undue favour by parties in power. It is no surprise that the suit-boot BJP is the primary recipient of these donations. According to the Association for Democratic Reforms, the BJP received 57% of the ₹9,191 crore in electoral bonds between March 2018 and January 2023 for which audit reports are available (the total bonds redeemed was ₹11,985 crore). In 2018-19, the year of the general election, the BJP received 74% of the ₹3,441 crore given in electoral bonds. An unholy cocktail of coercion and purported quid pro quo favours needed to achieve this can only be described as corruption.