• CV Antony Vigilious

Ukraine is in unbearable agony. Is its war with Russia a price worth paying to join the European Union? During talks between the Soviets and the West in the early 1990s, the West was warned: “NATO should rule out an East, i.e. moving it closer to the Soviet borders” (National Security Archive: nsarchive.gwu.edu). However, NATO subsequently decided to station troops upon the door-step of Russia. Prime Minister Modi’s efforts towards peace are commendable, however, it will only be fodder for the global media unless it considers the root problem of Russia’s fears of Western encroachment.

Ukraine and Russia have lived together for a long time and accomplished much. But as enemies today, they have attacked each other brutally; thousands of lives have been lost including innocent children and much infrastructure has been destroyed. Bringing both parties to the negotiating table is now onerous. At this juncture, India’s Prime Minister fresh from a visit to Russia visited Ukraine; but is disappointing that he has undertaken these visits without any realistic aim of ending the war. He only visited Ukraine to pacify the West.

India is not going to offer any solutions that will affect relations with Russia. Nor is Modi raising the fundamental question of NATO eastward expansion with the US President Joe Biden; no one dares ask this to the Western European countries either. At this moment, asking Russia to end the war is pointless, unless her security related concerns are answered.

From my point of view, this war is not between Russia and Ukraine. A biased picture will judge Russia as the problem-maker. If Modi asks the US to answer for NATO’s eastward expansion, then one will blame the West for this war. The Western strategy of making Russia to be invading a weak state defined Ukraine as the scapegoat in this war.

This clearly indicates that although it is a war between Russia and Ukraine, it is essentially a shadow war between the US and Russia, involving many European and Asian countries, including India and China (through importing cheap oil).India says it is balancing according to her interests and China stance is very clear with Russia. Modi’s postman role in his visit to Ukraine will be recorded as an ignoble moment in history. Ukraine’s Ambassador to India, Mr. Oleksandra Polishchuk, stated, “India should not be content playing a ‘postman passing messages between Ukraine and Russia’ but play a more robust role.”

Likewise, every country approaches international relations with its own interests, just as India’s interest is important to us. After Modi’s visit to Russia, he went to Ukraine, then sent National Security Adviser Ajit Dowel to meet Putin to explain his visit to Ukraine. He also recently went to the US for the Quad Conference. What did Modi do to protect Ukraine’s interest? Meanwhile, India has completely rejected the report by Reuters news agency that India is supplying arms to Ukraine through Europe. The United States – the only Super-Power – and other Western countries have supplied important weapons to Ukraine. Also, Ukraine President “Zelenskyy continuously giving pressure on Ukraine’s allies to lift restrictions on Western-supplied arms to strike deep inside Russia. President Joe Biden says the US is ‘working’ on Ukraine use of US long-range weapons inside Russia” (aljazeera.com). However, the US President is postponing the decision by considering the upcoming November elections in the United States. These US supplied arms would be used inside Russia. If India’s diplomacy in this scenario is merely an attempt to artificially boost the Prime Minister’s image for the sake of media coverage, it will land us in big trouble.

If our long-term dream to achieve major-power status in the international system is to be constructive, we must propose a settlement to end this war in a way accepted by all parties. Our superficial efforts will not add any importance to India. And it must be said that it is our weakest tendency not to open our mouths about this when NATO countries are marching against Russia indirectly in many ways. The pressure exerted by all these countries together should not cause Putin to resort to limited nuclear war option, “which could even lead to World War III” writes Andriy Zagorodnyuk in The Guardian.

One thing is clear, this war caused the Ukrainians to completely hate Russians. The US policy wants to see Russia further weakened and disintegrated. If that happens, the Western countries, especially the United States, have a long-term approach to face China with the support of India will not be denied. According to the BBC, before 2023 India imported 1% of oil from Russia but today it has increased to 35%; and since India is exporting it to Europe, it means all want the continuation of war for their own strategic interest. When US Media ask India’s Foreign Minister Dr. Jaishankar - why India imports oil from Russia, he asks journalists - Why Western Europe buys natural gas from Russia.

Yet, in a situation where Russia and Ukraine are suffering heavy casualties, who will speak up for the interests of Ukraine and Russia in the international forums? It’s a tough ask, given that Russia is looking for a respectable end to the war and that Ukraine looking to reconquer its lost territories from Russia. Could Modi would offer a win - win resolution? In September 2022, Modi said that this is not the time for war. Has the war stopped? On his recent visit to Russia, the Indian Prime Minister had an open-minded discussion with Russian President Putin on various issues including the Ukraine – Russia war. But the question is whether the Prime Minister asked Putin for a ceasefire with Ukraine? There is no answer so far. Modi’s Ukraine visit was like painting in water, presenting no viable plans to end the war. The Indian media, which sets the tone for Modi’s speech, can only describe it as breakthrough, but the war cannot be ended without an action plan accepted by both the parties. Therefore, this visit is an empty speech that cannot be translated into action.’

The author is a former State Coordinator of Research Department and AICC member