• Dr. Satyendra Kumar

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has once again exposed the vulnerabilities of the Indian economy and highlighted the failure of the Narendra Modi government to protect ordinary Indians from global economic shocks. For over a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have projected an image of India as a rising global power and promoted the slogan of “Vishwaguru” to describe the country’s international standing. Yet when a major geopolitical crisis erupted in West Asia—one of the most strategically important regions for India’s energy security—the government appeared largely reactive rather than proactive.

The consequences of this failure are now being felt by millions of Indians in the form of rising petrol, diesel, and LPG prices, increasing inflation, and mounting pressure on household budgets. India’s dependence on imported energy makes developments in West Asia critically important. More than 80 percent of India’s crude oil requirements are met through imports, and a significant portion of these imports originate from or transit through the Gulf region. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, immediately affects global energy markets and, consequently, the Indian economy. Analysts have repeatedly warned that the Iran conflict has increased risks to India’s energy security and exposed the economy to higher import costs and inflationary pressures.

The recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has triggered renewed concerns about oil supplies and shipping routes in the Gulf region. Reports indicate that military actions, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty in energy markets have pushed oil prices upward and intensified fears of prolonged instability.

For India, such developments are not distant geopolitical events. They translate directly into higher costs for transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and household consumption. Rising crude oil prices inevitably affect the prices of petrol, diesel, LPG, fertilizers, and a wide range of consumer goods. Experts have noted that higher oil prices can widen India’s trade deficit, weaken the rupee, and contribute to inflation.

The burden of these developments falls most heavily on ordinary citizens. Every increase in petrol and diesel prices raises transportation costs. Farmers pay more for irrigation and agricultural operations. Small businesses face higher operational expenses. Families spend more on commuting, cooking gas, and essential commodities. Inflation spreads throughout the economy, reducing purchasing power and eroding savings.

What makes this situation particularly troubling is that Indian consumers have already endured years of high fuel taxation. Critics have long argued that the Modi government used periods of lower international crude prices to increase excise duties and generate revenue rather than passing the full benefit to consumers. As a result, when global prices rise during crises such as the present Iran–US conflict, Indian households face a double burden: high international prices combined with an already elevated domestic tax structure.

The opposition has consistently maintained that fuel pricing under the BJP government reflects misplaced priorities. Instead of using taxation policy to cushion consumers against global volatility, successive decisions have left citizens exposed to sudden price shocks. The recent increase in domestic LPG prices has further intensified public dissatisfaction, with opposition parties accusing the government of failing to protect families already struggling with inflation.

The LPG issue deserves special attention because it directly affects the daily lives of millions of women. Access to affordable cooking gas was once projected as a transformative social initiative. However, affordability is as important as accessibility. A gas connection is meaningful only if households can regularly afford cylinder refills. Rising LPG prices have increasingly strained household finances, particularly among low-income and lower-middle-class families.

The Congress Party has repeatedly argued that energy policy must be guided by social justice and public welfare. Affordable fuel is not merely an economic issue; it is a matter of dignity, health, and quality of life. When cooking gas becomes unaffordable, families are forced to make difficult choices that affect nutrition, education, and healthcare expenditure. The economic implications of the Iran–US conflict extend beyond fuel prices alone. The Gulf region is also critical for India’s fertilizer imports, trade flows, and the livelihoods of millions of Indians working abroad. Any prolonged instability threatens remittances, shipping routes, and economic growth. Analysts have warned that the conflict has already disrupted supply chains and increased uncertainty in global markets.

This brings us to the question of foreign policy. For years, the Modi government has invested heavily in image-building exercises and high-profile diplomatic events. Foreign policy has often been presented through the lens of personal diplomacy and spectacular public relations campaigns. However, diplomacy must ultimately be judged by outcomes rather than optics.

The real test of foreign policy is whether it advances national interests and protects citizens from foreseeable risks. In the case of the Iran crisis, critics argue that India has not played a significant mediating role despite its longstanding relationships with multiple stakeholders in West Asia. Nor has the government articulated a convincing strategy for insulating Indian consumers from the economic consequences of regional instability.

India historically enjoyed strong diplomatic relations with Iran while simultaneously maintaining close ties with the United States, the Gulf monarchies, and Israel. This balanced approach enabled New Delhi to safeguard its energy interests and maintain strategic flexibility. Many observers believe that India’s traditional foreign policy strength lay in its ability to engage all sides without becoming overly dependent on any one geopolitical alignment.

The Congress tradition of foreign policy, developed under leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, and Manmohan Singh, emphasized strategic autonomy, non-alignment, and independent decision-making. The objective was always to preserve India’s freedom of action while securing national interests.

Today, critics contend that India has lost some of that diplomatic flexibility. They argue that while the government frequently speaks of global leadership, it has not translated diplomatic visibility into tangible economic protection for Indian citizens. If India is indeed a leading global power, then ordinary citizens are entitled to ask why fuel prices continue to rise whenever international tensions increase and why the government appears unable to shield consumers from these shocks.

The present crisis also reveals the importance of long-term energy planning. India remains excessively dependent on imported fossil fuels. While progress has been made in renewable energy development, the pace of transition remains insufficient to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. Every conflict in West Asia continues to threaten India’s economic stability because energy diversification has not advanced rapidly enough.

A more effective strategy would involve expanding renewable energy infrastructure, strengthening public transportation systems, enhancing strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying energy suppliers, and maintaining balanced diplomatic relations across the region. Such measures would not eliminate external shocks, but they would reduce their impact on ordinary citizens. The central issue is accountability. The Modi government cannot claim credit for every diplomatic success while attributing every economic difficulty to external circumstances. Leadership requires accepting responsibility for policy choices and their consequences.

The Iran–US conflict may have originated thousands of kilometres away, but its effects are being felt in Indian homes, farms, and workplaces. Rising fuel prices, expensive LPG cylinders, and inflationary pressures are not abstract economic concepts; they are daily realities for millions of people.

The promise of governance is not merely to manage crises after they occur but to prepare for them before they arise. On that measure, the current government faces difficult questions. Why does India remain so vulnerable to energy shocks? Why are consumers repeatedly asked to bear the burden of global instability? And why has a government that claims unprecedented international influence struggled to translate that influence into economic security for its citizens?

As fuel prices rise and household budgets come under increasing strain, these questions will only become more urgent. The challenge before India is not simply to navigate a temporary geopolitical crisis, it is to build an economic and diplomatic framework that places the welfare of ordinary citizens at its centre.

The people of India deserve a government that treats affordable energy, economic stability, and strategic autonomy as national priorities rather than political slogans. Only then can India genuinely claim to be a nation whose global aspirations are matched by its commitment to the welfare of its citizens.

The author is an Associate Professor, Department of English, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi